MENA REGIONAL Conference (Hybrid) | Wed 3rd May | Cairo

Event date : 3rd May 2023

By: Ishac Diwan, 

Stabilisation and adjustment: Towards Inclusive and Sustainable Policies in MENA

  • WEDNESDAY 3 MAY (HYBRID FORMAT)
  • 12:00 - 18:40 (CAIRO LOCAL TIME)
  • LA SEINE BALLROOM, NOVOTEL HOTEL & ZOOM

Part of the ERF 29th Annual Conference: The Future of MENA Development Path: Risks and Opportunities in an Emerging World Order

ERF logo
ERF MENA CONF

Some aspects of today’s economic and financial situations in several MENA countries resemble those that prevailed in the late 1980s-early 1990s, with structural adjustment programs gradually reducing macro-imbalances and a forced rollback of the state resulting in a degradation of public services. At the same time, selective liberalization lead to limited competition, low innovation and insufficient inclusive growth. Once again, a central question prevails: How to address the dual pressures of unsustainable macro and weak growth structure?

Lessons from the 1980s certainly apply but today’s challenges also have to deal with larger populations, export-led growth, pressing climate imperatives, increased social mobilization complicating policy choices and a prevalent informal sector evolving outside the social protection network and extremely vulnerable to shocks. MENA’s oil importing countries have to adjust to high fuel and food prices, and to rising global interest rates. Public debts are growing fast towards unsustainable levels. Already, currency devaluation and inflation are combining to lower economic growth, increase poverty, and put more stress on a battered middle-class, leading to a rise of social unrest.

The challenge ahead is stark: inaction would lead to a financial crisis but austerity alone could only stabilize debt in the very short term. Failing to develop a convincing response raises the threat of a vicious cycle of economic, social, and political declines, including a retreat into populism, and destructive social polarization.

It is against this backdrop that ERF and FDL launched a joint research project on Stabilization and Adjustment in MENA, focusing on the oil importing middle-income countries of the region: Egypt, Lebanon, Tunisia, Morocco, Sudan, and Jordan. The program’s objective is clarify the macro-economic risks related to external and internal balances (and the sustainability of public and external debt), and to propose an overall strategy to tackle these risks, trying to find a balance between austerity and innovative growth measures.

A regional ERF/FDL report was launched in October 2022 in Washington DC, on the margin of the World Bank/IMF Annual Meetings. An abridged Arabic version was also made available and widely circulated. The second phase of the project focuses on country-specific research, with each country report being based on broad national consultations with its own specific areas of focus.

The aim of this regional conference is to disseminate the key findings of the six country case studies and to open a dialogue between researchers and stakeholders to inform policy debates on the more hopeful scenarios that can be attained, and which innovative reforms would be necessary to achieve these targets. This project is gratefully funded by IDRC.

SPEAKERS

Ibrahim Elbadawi

Managing Director, Economic Research Forum
Ibrahim Elbadawi Managing Director, Economic Research Forum
Ishac Diwan 

Director of Research, Finance for Development Lab, Paris School of Economics
Ishac Diwan Director of Research, Finance for Development Lab, Paris School of Economics
Adnan Mazarei

Non resident Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Adnan Mazarei Non resident Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Reza Baqir Senior Fellow, Harvard Kennedy School and Managing Director and Global Practice Leader for Sovereign Advisory Services, Alvarez and Marsal

Cropped. Source: World Bank Live. License: CC BY NC-SA 4.0
Reza Baqir Senior Fellow, Harvard Kennedy School and Managing Director and Global Practice Leader for Sovereign Advisory Services, Alvarez and Marsal Cropped. Source: World Bank Live. License: CC BY NC-SA 4.0
Samir Makdisi
Professor Emeritus of Economics, American University of Beirut
Samir Makdisi Professor Emeritus of Economics, American University of Beirut
Kabbashi Suliman
University of Khartoum
Kabbashi Suliman University of Khartoum
Henri J. Chaoul
Managing Partner, Levantine Partners
Henri J. Chaoul Managing Partner, Levantine Partners
Hamid Eltgani Ali
Associate Professor, Department of Public Policy and Administration, The American University in Cairo
Hamid Eltgani Ali Associate Professor, Department of Public Policy and Administration, The American University in Cairo
Bassem Snaije
Managing Partner, Cosmos Advisors
Bassem Snaije Managing Partner, Cosmos Advisors
Alia El Mahdi
CEO of the Egyptian Iron and Steel Association
Alia El Mahdi CEO of the Egyptian Iron and Steel Association
Ibrahim Saif
CEO, Jordan Strategy Forum
Ibrahim Saif CEO, Jordan Strategy Forum
Zafiris Tzannatos
Senior Fellow, Jordan Strategy Forum
Zafiris Tzannatos Senior Fellow, Jordan Strategy Forum
Abdelaaziz Ait Ali
Principal Economist and Head of the Research Department, Policy Center for the New South
Abdelaaziz Ait Ali Principal Economist and Head of the Research Department, Policy Center for the New South
Mustapha Nabli
North Africa Bureau of Economic Studies (NABES)
Mustapha Nabli North Africa Bureau of Economic Studies (NABES)
Hafez Ghanem
Former Vice President of the World Bank for Africa, Senior Fellow at the Policy Center for the New South in Morocco, non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and Distinguished Fellow at the Finance for Development Lab
Hafez Ghanem Former Vice President of the World Bank for Africa, Senior Fellow at the Policy Center for the New South in Morocco, non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and Distinguished Fellow at the Finance for Development Lab
Abla Abdel-Latif
Executive Director and Director of Research, Egyptian Center for Economic Studies
Abla Abdel-Latif Executive Director and Director of Research, Egyptian Center for Economic Studies
Leila Baghdadi
Professor of Economics, ESSECT, University of Tunis
Leila Baghdadi Professor of Economics, ESSECT, University of Tunis